Wani rahoto na Wood Mackenzie na baya-bayan nan ya yi la'akari da halaye da ƙalubale a cikin haɓakar kasuwar hasken rana ta Amurka, gami da masana'anta da Dokar Rage Haɗin Kuɗi ta Amurka ta ƙarfafa.
Daga pv mujallar Amurka
Dokar rage hauhawar farashin kayayyaki ta Amurka ta 2022 ta ƙunshi dala biliyan 370 a cikin kashewa don sabunta makamashi da matakan yanayi.Kudirin ya hada da fiye da dala biliyan 60 donmasana'anta na gidaa fadin sarkar samar da makamashi mai tsafta.Wannan matakin saka hannun jari na tarihi shine mabuɗin don samun 'yancin masana'antar Amurka da tsaftataccen tsaro na makamashi.
Wani rahoto na baya-bayan nan daga Wood Mackenzie ya nuna cewa masu haɓakawa, kamfanoni masu siyar da aikin injiniya (EPCs), da masana'antun za su sa ido don neman jagora daga Ma'aikatar Baitulmali ta Amurka da IRS don fayyace sabbin hanyoyin haɓaka hasken rana da saka hannun jari a sabbin wuraren masana'antu. cikin Amurka.
Rahoton ya duba abubuwan da ke faruwa a cikin wannan masana'antar ta haɓaka, gami da mai da hankali kan samfuran TOPCon akan heterojunction (HJT), haɓakar kasuwar inverter ta duniya, haɓaka masana'antar tracker, raguwar farashin aikin hasken rana da kuma duba ƙalubalen da ke gaba. .
TOPcon vs. PERC
TOPCon, wanda ke tsaye ga tunnel oxide passivated contacts, ana tsammanin zai wuce heterojunction (HJT), kuma rahoton Wood Mackenzie ya lura cewa mono PERC "fasaha ce da ke daidaita balaga da inganci", yana nuna cewa TOPCon yana da mafi girman yuwuwar haɓakawa saboda aiwatarwa. ingantawa da haɓaka farashi.
" PERCfasahar panelHakanan yana da saurin koyo sosai kuma daidaiton da ke tsakanin su zai dogara ne akan wanda zai iya haɓaka ingancinsa ko rage farashi da sauri fiye da ɗayan,” Stefan Gunz, shugaban bincike na photovoltaics a Cibiyar Fraunhofer ta Jamus don Tsarin Makamashin Rana. (ISE), ya cepv mujallarshekara daya da ta wuce.
Masu sharhi na Wood Mackenzie sun kiyasta cewa samfuran TOPCon sun kai 25% inganci a cikin samar da yawa kuma suna iya hawa zuwa 28.7%
Haɓaka masana'anta daga samar da mono PERC zuwa TOPCon saka hannun jari ne mai sauƙi kuma mai ƙarancin farashi, kuma manazarta sun yi kiyasin cewa za a iya samun ingancin aikin lab na 27% ta hanyar haɓaka ƙarfe da wafers mai sirara.Wood Mackenzie ya lura cewa wasu masana'antun suna tsammanin matsakaicin kauri na wafer don manyan samfuran TOPCon na iya rage 20 μm a wannan shekara zuwa 120 μm, wanda zai haifar da mafi yawan raguwar farashin a cikin 2023.
Dokar rage hauhawar farashin kayayyaki tana ƙarfafa masana'antu na Amurka sakamakon dala biliyan 30 na kuɗin harajin samarwa da kuma dala biliyan 10 na harajin saka hannun jari don gina wuraren samar da fasaha mai tsabta.Wood Mackenzie yana tsammanin Amurkamodule samar iya aikiya zarce GW 15 a karshen wannan shekarar.
Babban tambaya, duk da haka, ita ce ma'anar "kayan da aka yi a cikin gida", da kuma ko yana nufin cewa an haɗa samfuran a cikin Amurka, ko kuma idan an yi duk abubuwan da aka gyara a cikin Amurka.Kalubalen masu yin ƙirar shine cewa kusan babu wafer ko masana'anta a cikin Amurka, kodayake hakan yana canzawa tare da sanarwar kwanan nan ta kamfanoni ciki har da Qcells da CubicPV.Bambanci a cikin fassarar abubuwan cikin gida "zai iya tasiri sosai kan iyawar masana'anta a cikin shekaru biyar masu zuwa", in ji rahoton.Masu sharhi sun kiyasta cewa kusan 45 GWdc na sabbin sanarwar iya aiki za su zo kan layi nan da 2026.
Haɓaka da ake tsammanin na hasken rana a cikin Amurka za ta ƙaru ta hanyar samar da kayayyaki, yana haɓaka haɓaka a cikin inverters da trackers, a tsakanin sauran abubuwan tallafi.Rahoton Wood Mackenzie ya lura cewa canje-canjen manufofin kwanan nan, ciki har da EU's REPowerEU, aiwatar da Indiya na samar da ingantacciyar haɓakawa (PLI) da kuma US IRA, za su hanzarta ɗaukar hasken rana a waɗannan ƙasashe, don haka taimaka wa ƙasashen su cimma burinsu na sifiri.
A cewar rahoton, kasuwar inverter na zama za ta yi girma a ko'ina cikin duniya a cikin 2023. Tare da rufin rufin hasken rana yana samun karbuwa, musamman a cikin ƙasashe kamar Indiya da Jamus, za a sami haɓaka mai dacewa a kasuwa don microinverters, string inverters da DC optimizers, da mafi mashahuri zaɓin inverter don shigarwa na saman rufin.Musamman ma, masu jujjuya kirtani tare da madaidaicin madaidaicin madaidaicin ma'aunin wutar lantarki (MPPTs) za su ga karuwar yawaitar kasuwa a cikin 2023.
Masu juyawa na zama za su ga ƙarin amfani da hankali na wucin gadi a cikin algorithms ɗin sa.Module-level power Electronics (MLPEs) da kuma masu inverters na lokaci-lokaci guda ɗaya, mafi mashahuri a cikin kayan aikin hasken rana, za su ga kashi 11% na kasuwa a cikin jigilar inverter na duniya a cikin 2023. Masana'antun inverter zai karu tare da manyan 'yan wasa suna ƙara layin samarwa da sababbin masu shiga. shiga kasuwa, kuma gasar da ta biyo baya za ta haifar da faduwar farashin daga 2% zuwa 4% a cikin 2023.
Kalubale na ci gaba ga masana'antun inverter shine ƙarancin guntu na duniya, wanda manazarta Wood Mackenzie ke tsammanin zai ci gaba har zuwa 2023 kuma ya zarce zuwa 2024. Karancin ya sa masana'antun inverter su samo kwakwalwan kwamfuta daga ƙananan masana'antun kafin su gudanar da gwaji mai tsauri a cikin gida. don tabbatar da ingancin inverters su, inganci da tsawon rayuwarsu.Wood Mac ya annabta cewa farashin inverter ba zai sauko ba sai daga baya a wannan shekara.
Samar da saƙon cikin gida yana ƙaruwa a sassa da yawa na duniya saboda abubuwan ƙarfafawa na gwamnati da kuma lamuran kayan aiki da aka samu yayin bala'in COVID-19.A cewar Wood Mackenzie manazarta, farashin tracker zai ragu a Indiya da Amurka.Suna tsammanin ƙarin kwanciyar hankali a cikin samar da ƙarfe a Amurka da Indiya, musamman tare da faɗaɗa masana'antar ƙarfe da ake da su.Turai, duk da haka, za ta fuskanci rashin daidaito a kasuwar karafa.Kamar yadda sama da kashi 60% na abun da ke sa ido ya kasance karfe, wannan koma bayan buƙatun karfe zai haifar da haɓaka gasa a cikin kasuwar sa ido ga masu siyarwa, in ji Wood Mackenzie manazarta, yana hasashen cewa farashin 2023 na masu sa ido zai faɗi da kashi 5% a Amurka, Brazil da kuma Amurka. China.
Farashin hasken rana
Kudin kashe babban birnin zai ci gaba da faduwa, wanda aka yi amfani da shi a wani bangare ta hanyar karuwar amfani da kayayyaki na TOPcon.Wood Mackenzie manazarta kuma suna tsammanin farashin polysilicon zai ragu a wannan shekara kuma sun kiyasta cewa akwai300 GWƘarfin ƙarfin duniya zai kai 900 GW a ƙarshen 2023.
"Mun yi hasashen cewa sama da miliyan 1 na fadada polysilicon zai zo kan layi nan da shekarar 2023. Yawancin sabbin damar za su kasance a China.Koyaya, mun yi imanin kusan kashi 10% da aka tsara don kasancewa a waje da China na iya ba da umarnin farashi mai ƙima saboda yana iya zama mara nauyi da sauran haɗarin manufofin. "
Kalubalen da ke gudana shine rashin tabbas game da farashin jadawalin kuɗin fito na kashewa/countervailing (AD/CVD).Tare da Sashen Kasuwancin Amurka ana sa ran sanar da ƙudurinsa na ƙarshe a watan Mayu 2023, Wood Mackenzie ya ƙiyasta cewa ayyuka na iya bambanta daga 16% zuwa 254% dangane da ƙasar ta asali.Ƙudurin farko, wanda aka fitar a watan Disamba na 2022, ya sami kamfanoni na matakin 1, kamar Trina, BYD, Vina (ɓangare na Longi) da Kanad Solar, sun keta harajin China.Ƙaddamarwar farko ta share Hanwha da Jinko wanda zai haifar da ɗan jin daɗi a cikin samuwa a cikin 2023.
A cikin Amurka, masu haɓakawa za su ci gaba da mai da hankali kan buƙatun IRA, gami da yawan albashin da ake samu da ƙarin kari na abubuwan cikin gida don ayyukan sikelin mai amfani da aka fara gini a cikin 2023. Don ayyukan don da'awar cikakken kuɗin harajin saka hannun jari na 30% ko harajin samarwa bashi, duk ayyukan da suka fi 1 MWac dole ne su biya ma'aikatansu albashin da ya fi dacewa kuma su kafa shirin koyo.
A Turai, manufar REPowerEU na da nufin sanya 320 GW na PV na hasken rana nan da 2025 da 600 GW a ƙarƙashin dabarunta na makamashin hasken rana na EU.Don cimma waɗannan buƙatun buƙatun, yana buƙatar gina cibiyar masana'antu mai ƙarfi a cikin yankin.Sabuwar Ƙungiyar Masana'antu ta Hasken Rana ta Turai, za ta ƙirƙiri wani tsari don taimakawa samar da kuɗi don masana'antu da haɓaka bincike da ƙira a cikin fasahar ƙirar, a tsakanin sauran fasahohin sifilin carbon.
Kalubale na ƙarshe zuwaPV masana'antua Turai, a cewar Wood Mackenzie manazarta, shine gasar farashi daga yankin APAC saboda yawan farashin makamashi, aiki da kayan aiki, amma zai iya amfana daga abokan ciniki da ke son biyan kuɗi don mafi kyawun fasaha da kuma nuna gaskiya a cikin samar da kayayyaki.
Lokacin aikawa: Janairu-29-2023